Raphael Collignon – Manuel Cerundolo Juan - Gstaad Semifinal, 18 July 2026

Match analysis

Collignon enters this semifinal as the favourite on multiple measures. His ranking of #42 sits ahead of Cerundolo's #45, and the head-to-head record strongly favors him at 2-1. On the season, Collignon has posted an 18-9 record (67% win rate) against Cerundolo's 18-13 (58%). Both players reached this semifinal, confirming they belong at this level, but Collignon's year-long consistency gives him a genuine edge. Recent form is identical for both: 5-3 in their last eight matches. The rankings, the historical record, and the season statistics all point toward Collignon, though Cerundolo's competitive record shows this is no walkover.

The most revealing number is on clay, Collignon's best surface. He's 5-1 on clay this season; Cerundolo is 9-4. While Cerundolo's nine wins sound substantial, Collignon's conversion rate of 83% crushes Cerundolo's 69%. Gstaad rewards mastery of the clay court, and Collignon has been near-flawless this year on the surface. Cerundolo has won on clay multiple times, but inconsistently. The data suggests Collignon will control this match, converting his clay expertise into a straightforward victory. If you're weighing a bet on this semifinal, the clay numbers alone justify backing Collignon at reasonable odds.