Vilius Gaubas – Harry Wendelken - US Open Final, 27 August 2026

Match analysis

The most interesting verified contrast is Gaubas’s 76-place ranking advantage, which gives him the clearer statistical platform for this US Open final. Gaubas 5/8 recent results compare favourably with Wendelken 4/8, and both players arrive after winning their latest two listed matches in the event. That combination supports Gaubas as the stronger side without requiring assumptions about the unknown surface. H2H Gaubas 0-0 Wendelken means there is no prior meeting to reinforce or undermine that view, so the ranking and recent-results evidence should carry most of the weight.

Wendelken still has a credible route through maintaining the momentum shown in his latest listed US Open results, and the absence of a direct-match sample leaves room for the underdog to outperform the rankings. The concrete counter-risk is that recent event form narrows the apparent gap more than the overall ranking suggests. At 1.57, the available price is not in the short-odds pass range, while the expert estimate of Gaubas 62% sits above the 59.95% market baseline by 2.05 percentage points. That is a modest positive edge rather than a guarantee, so Gaubas is the decision at a restrained stake. Odds are indicative and can change. 18+ only; gamble responsibly.