Naomi Osaka – Elise Mertens - US Open Match, 4 September 2026

Match analysis

The most interesting verified contrast is Osaka’s stronger recent return alongside a seven-place ranking edge: she is ranked 13th to Mertens’ 20th. Osaka 6/8 gives the selection the better current sample than Mertens 5/8, and both players arrive with consecutive US Open wins. That combination supports Osaka as the more credible favourite in this match. The important qualification is the prior series: H2H Osaka 2-4 Mertens. Mertens therefore has a clear route into the contest if she can reproduce the results that have previously worked against Osaka, making that head-to-head record the concrete counter-risk.

James Whitfield’s expert estimate is Osaka 72%, a reproducible assessment based on ranking, recent form, head-to-head and the normalised market baseline rather than a guarantee. It sits above the 71.15% market baseline by 0.85 percentage points, so the direction still favours Osaka, but only modestly. The available Osaka moneyline of 1.33 is below 1.40; with no supported alternative market supplied, it is not worth a bet and the recommendation is to pass. Odds are indicative and can change. Mertens’ positive recent results and superior head-to-head provide enough resistance to respect the price rather than force an entry.