Jessica Pegula – Sofia Kenin - US Open Round of 64, 2 September 2026

Match analysis

Pegula’s 107-place ranking advantage is the clearest verified contrast, with the higher-ranked player also bringing the stronger recent sequence into this US Open meeting. Pegula 6/8 reflects a notably steadier run than her opponent’s, and that combination supports her as the deserved selection. The evidence is not based on any assumed court conditions, which are unknown. Pegula has the more compelling overall case, but the concrete counter-risk is Kenin carrying a winning result into the match and finding enough continuity to make the contest more competitive than the rankings suggest.

Kenin 3/8 nevertheless includes a US Open win, while H2H Pegula 1-3 Kenin shows that this opponent has previously had success in the matchup. James Whitfield’s expert estimate is Pegula 90%, below the 90.14% market baseline by 0.14 percentage points, so it is an analytical forecast rather than a guarantee. Odds are indicative and can change. With the favourite quoted at 1.05, below 1.40, the moneyline is not worth a bet and the recommendation is to pass. 18+ only; gamble responsibly.