Yibing Wu – Carlos Alcaraz - US Open Round of 32, 4 September 2026

Match analysis

Alcaraz arrives with a 110-place ranking advantage, ranked third to Wu’s 113th, and the stronger recent record: Alcaraz 7/8, compared with Wu 5/8. That is a compelling starting point for the US Open 1/16-finals, especially with the forecast built from ranking, form, their prior meeting and the normalised market baseline. Alcaraz is therefore the selected player in James Whitfield’s reproducible assessment. Wu deserves respect for winning his two latest US Open matches, however, and his route to an upset is clear: maintain that current tournament momentum while the favourite fails to turn the broader edge into a clean result.

The counterweight is direct evidence: H2H Wu 1-0 Alcaraz, albeit from only one match, so it tempers rather than overturns the ranking and form case. James Whitfield’s expert estimate is Alcaraz 90%, a reproducible forecast rather than a guarantee; it sits below the 91.36% market baseline by 1.36 percentage points. The indicative favourite price is 1.05, beneath 1.40, and no supported alternative market is available, so the moneyline is not worth a bet: pass, despite Alcaraz being likely to win. Odds are indicative and can change. This preview is for 18+ audiences; gamble responsibly.