Daniel Merida Aguilar – Daniil Medvedev - Wimbledon Round of 64, 1 July 2026

Match analysis

Medvedev enters this Wimbledon final ranked ninth globally, with Aguilar at eighty-four. The seventy-five-place gap explains the odds gulf: 1.03 for the favourite, 23.00 for the outsider. Yet Aguilar's path to the final is remarkable. She's no random qualifier; her grass-court performances across the tournament have proven consistent. Grass tennis rewards movement, serve accuracy, and court positioning. Medvedev's baseline power dominates on hard courts, but on grass, angles matter more than raw pace. Aguilar can shorten points and attack. They've never met, so Medvedev has no tactical history to lean on.

The betting angle is clear: avoid match odds at 1.03. You'd stake £103 to win just £3 profit. That's a poor risk-reward proposition even if Medvedev is likely to win. Aguilar at 23.00 makes more sense as a hedge. A small stake covers your position if she produces an upset. The smarter approach is set betting: does Medvedev dominate in straight sets, or does Aguilar steal a set? This market offers more value. Bookmakers price Medvedev's ranking heavily; they may undervalue Aguilar's specific grass-court strengths.