Taylor Fritz – Francisco Cerundolo - US Open Round of 32, 5 September 2026

Match analysis

Fritz brings the clearer verified edge into this US Open round: he is ranked 10th to Cerundolo’s 25th, a 15-place gap, and his recent sequence reads Fritz 6/8 against Cerundolo 3/8. The head-to-head evidence also points the same way, with H2H Fritz 2-0 Cerundolo. James Whitfield’s expert estimate is Fritz 81%, a reproducible forecast drawn from ranking, recent form, head-to-head and the normalised market baseline rather than a guarantee. That estimate sits 3.8 percentage points above the 77.2% market baseline, making Fritz the supported selection on the available evidence.

Cerundolo nevertheless has a credible route through sustaining the positive momentum shown in his two latest US Open results, so Fritz should not be treated as automatic. The concrete counter-risk is that Cerundolo extends that current tournament run while Fritz fails to convert his broader statistical advantages into the result. The available favourite price is 1.19, below 1.40, and no supported alternative market is provided; accordingly, the moneyline is not worth a bet and the recommendation is to pass. Odds are indicative and can change. 18+ only; gamble responsibly and within your means.